Did We Create All Those Green Jobs?

Green Economy Remains Center Stage

In 2018, a group of lawmakers in Washington, D.C. released an ambitious policy proposal they dubbed the Green New Deal (GND). Harking back to FDR’s plan to get the U.S. out of the Great Depression, the GND would combine his ambitious economic approach with current ideas such as renewable resources, efficient use of resources, and an increased use of green technologies.

Bill originators claimed the change in approach would bring about a rapid increase in job growth. At the time, Scientific American reported that Senator Elizabeth Warren claimed the GND would create 1.2 million green manufacturing jobs, while Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders said the proposal would generate somewhere between 10-20 million new jobs.

This was hardly the first instance during which claims indicating that an economywide shift to a greener economy would generate massive economic dividends, including for workers. This is a version of having one’s cake and eating it, too. Not only does transitioning to a greener economy generate environmental benefits, but economic ones as well – at least that is the claim.

A 2014 report from the Center for American Progress, a center-left think tank, concluded that a $200 billion investment in new technologies to meet international climate goals would create 4.2 million jobs, which translates into a net increase of 2.7 million positions after accounting for jobs lost in fossil fuel-related industries in the process. National unemployment would decline by 1.5 percentage points, which was a big deal in 2014 when national unemployment averaged 6.2%.

Conventionally, a green job is defined as either: 1) jobs in businesses that produce goods or provide services that benefit the environment or conserve natural resources; or 2) jobs in which workers’ duties involve making their establishment’s production processes more environmentally friendly or less natural resource intensive. This article focuses on whether the green economy is poised to fulfill its promise.

What Has Transpired

Based on an analysis by Lightcast and WorkingNation, there has been a 50% increase in the number of green jobs since 2019. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) expects that trend to continue in certain occupations, many of which are related to construction. According to BLS, the number of wind turbine technicians is expected to grow by 44.9% by 2031, while the number of solar installers will increase 22.3%.

While that sounds impressive, it does not in and of itself translate into an abundance of new jobs. The number of solar installer positions is expected to expand by 6,600 over the decade ending in 2032. The number of wind turbine service technicians is expected to expand 5,000 jobs. Still, it can be said that the movement towards green energy is in fact producing new jobs, but one wonders about the degree to which novel job creation is offset by losses in traditional energy production and distribution segments.

While some would point out that the transition to a greener economy is inflationary, with more expensive energy sources displacing traditional ones like coal, the transition will continue to transpire as policymakers push ahead. In 2023, California governor Gavin Newsom signed into law a slate of bills intended to accelerate critical infrastructure projects across the state to help build a 100% clean energy grid. That year, Governor Newsome announced the “Building the Electricity Grid of the Future: California’s Clean Energy Transition Plan,” which lays out how the state will attain its goal of 100% clean electricity by 2045. The “roadmap outlines how California will leverage hundreds of new solar, wind, battery storage, and other clean energy projects to achieve our 100% clean electricity goal.”

While Governor Newsom receives much attention because of the size of his state and persistent rumors that he will one day run for the Democratic presidential nomination, there are several other governors who are considered leaders of the green movement. Among them are Washington State Governor Jay Inslee, also known for his focus on climate change and clean energy initiatives. Kate Brown of Oregon, Phil Murphy of New Jersey, Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico, Jared Polis of Colorado, Janet Mills of Main, and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, another possible future presidential contender, are also often placed on the list of greenest governors. Governor Whitmer has pledged to make Michigan’s sizeable economy carbon neutral by 2050.

Once Again, America at the Vanguard

The U.S. has taken a leading role in transforming its buildings and infrastructure into environmentally friendly and sustainable structures. According to Green Business Certification Inc., an organization that provides oversight and credentialing of LEED projects, the U.S. ranked first in the world with more than 556 million square feet of LEED-certified space. This was more than double the next country on the list, mainland China, which recorded 264 million in LEED-certified space.

Investment in these environmentally friendly spaces has been increasing. In 2021, the U.S. invested more than $86 billion in green buildings. More recently, the Biden administration announced it would direct $475 million in funding to support clean energy solutions in five states. One of the projects in Kentucky aims to convert an old coal mine into “a closed-loop, pumped-storage hydroelectric facility with the potential to dispatch up to eight hours of power when needed…” In Pennsylvania, developers plan to repurpose 2,700 acres of land used for coal mining to create the largest solar project in the state. The amount of energy produced by the project would be enough to power more than 70,000 homes. A similar solar project in West Virginia will produce enough energy to power almost 40,000 homes.

Many of the new green projects are being constructed on college campuses. That comes as little surprise since college presidents and boards tend to be on the front foot when it comes to fomenting social change. For example, the North Torrey Pines Living and Learning Neighborhood, completed in 2021, was built to house up to 2,000 undergraduates at the University of California San Diego campus. With a construction cost of $627 million, the mixed-use facility provides 1.5 million square feet of residential and academic research space.

Harvard University completed construction of its Science and Engineering Complex in 2021. The state of the art eight-story steel building cost the university roughly $1 billion to construct and ranks among the most environmentally friendly and energy-efficient laboratories in the world. According to the Harvard Gazette, “Harvard used the construction of the [Science and Engineering Complex] to evaluate and test 6,033 building materials, ranging from wire coatings to furniture fabrics to lighting fixtures, and worked with manufacturers and designers to create safer global supply chains.” The 554,000 square foot building will help Harvard achieve its fossil-neutral goal by 2026 and its fossil-free goal by 2050.

Looking Ahead

Rapid transition towards a green economy continues. Projects are transpiring across the political spectrum, from left-leaning northern states to conservative southern ones. Undoubtedly, policy support for the transition towards a cleaner economy will ebb and flow as administrations change in Washington, D.C., state capitals, county seats and cities. But the shift toward the green economy appears inexorable, with the implication being that both workers and their employers will observe greater opportunities flowing from relevant economic segments.

About the Author

Anirban Basu

Anirban Basu is Chairman & CEO of Sage Policy Group, Inc., an economic and policy consulting firm in Baltimore, MD. He is one of the Mid-Atlantic region’s most recognizable economists in part because of his consulting work on behalf of such clients as prominent developers, bankers, brokerage houses, energy suppliers, and law firms.

Read full bio