December 2010 CONFINDEX Reading

This is the fourth consecutive reading over the 100 mark representing more positive  than negative responses. This reading continues a trend with confidence slowly and consistently staying on the positive side. CONFINDEX’s latest reading also represents a 48% increase over the pessimistic December 2008 reading of 79 taken in the midst of the economic crisis.

All four sub-indices that make up the overall CONFINDEX number have also risen into the solidly positive territory above 100. For example, the Business Condition sub index registered a 17% gain over September by rising from 110 to 129. This reading represents its highest level since the survey began in 2008 and is a nice jump from the December 2009 reading of 83.

The Financial Conditions sub-index also rose a modest 4% from September’s 101 to a current 105 reflecting the more cautious credit environment prevalent today. The financial conditions sub-index has been consistently above 100 for all of 2010.

The Current Confidence and 2011 Outlook sub-indices also are positive, more so for the Current Confidence Index  than the year ahead 2011 Outlook sub-index. The current confidence sub-index reading of 102 is a 17%  gain from September’s 87 and indicates more confidence among CONFINDEX participants during the current quarter. However, their confidence in the outlook for the upcoming year is cautious  as shown by a modest 6% increase in the Year Ahead Outlook sub-index from September’s 124 to today’s 132.

Copyright © 2010 by the Construction Financial Management Association (CFMA). All rights reserved. This report first appeared in December 2010 on CFMA.org.

About the Author

Anirban Basu

Anirban Basu is Chairman & CEO of Sage Policy Group, Inc., an economic and policy consulting firm in Baltimore, MD. He is one of the Mid-Atlantic region’s most recognizable economists in part because of his consulting work on behalf of such clients as prominent developers, bankers, brokerage houses, energy suppliers, and law firms.

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