TOPIC
Economic Outlook: From Here to Price Stability

SUMMARY & LEARNING OBJECTIVES

• Although inflation has probably peaked after hitting 40-year highs, the path back to 2% should prove problematic owing to stubborn wage gains.
   
• Although the FOMC has begun to trim its tightening tempo, policy rates will still head higher and then remain elevated until 2% inflation is in the Fed’s sights.
   
• Under the weight of high interest rates, the U.S. economy is unlikely to skirt a recession. But it should be short and shallow, unless inflation doesn’t fall enough for Fed comfort.

Michael Gregory, CFA
Deputy Chief Economist & Head of U.S. Economics | Managing Director
BMO Capital Markets 

BIOGRAPHY
Michael Gregory is the Deputy Chief Economist & Head of U.S. Economics for BMO Capital Markets. He is part of the team responsible for forecasting and analyzing the North American economy and financial markets. Michael is one of the authors of Economic Research’s weekly publication, Focus. He also co-authors the monthly Rates Scenario report that provides clients with the firm’s view on interest rates and foreign exchange rates.

He has spent his career working in either economics or financial markets research for firms on both sides of the Canada-U.S. border. Prior to his current role, Michael headed up the Financial Services Analysis team at Bank of Montreal, focusing on regulatory and industry restructuring issues, before shifting to BMO Capital Markets Economics in 2004. He moved to Chicago in 2013, providing research support for the U.S. and Canadian fixed income business, before returning to Toronto in 2016.

Michael is a graduate of Concordia University in Montreal and Western University in London, Ontario. He did doctoral studies at Fordham University in New York City, and holds a Chartered Financial Analyst designation.